A total of 50.2 GW of new wind power was added globally in 2018, a 4% increase year-over-year — and the third highest annual total on record. This is according to the Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables’ Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2019 report.
The U.S. wind industry is expected to shift fully into execution mode from 2019 to 2021 to fulfill PTC ambitions. During this timeframe, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables expects 48% of the U.S. 10-year outlook to come online.
“Mitigation strategies to be employed against execution risk and robust C&I demand both support near-term expectations, while the strengthening of state-level targets and innovation will drive long-term development,” said Luke Lewandowski, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Research Director.
Latin America stagnation
Early 2019 saw a challenging start for Latin America, as unfavorable dynamics unfolded in Mexico and no awards were given in Colombia’s inaugural auction.
“The cancellation of Mexico’s long-term auction and a critical HVDC line stymie growth potential puts a greater emphasis on the maturation of developing markets, several of which lack a schedule for the next round of auctions,” said Lewandowski. “Despite these challenges, the region boasts a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 10%.”
A look at China
Aggressive renewables targets in India and explosive growth in the offshore sector are expected to drive a 10-year CAGR of 12.2% in Asia Pacific, excluding China. “Target compliance in India is likely to bifurcate the next decade’s outlook, with near-term challenges posing issues for the 2020 target. Cumulative offshore capacity in the region will reach almost 19 GW from just 111 MW at the end of 2018, led by growth in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
“China’s market recovery will continue, as additional provinces in the north work to lift red warnings, supporting 250GW of capacity through to 2028,” said Lewandowski. “The annual share of offshore wind in China will average 18% of annual capacity from 2022 to 2028, as a result of onshore grid constraints and saturation.”
The transition to auctions in Europe will support a new level of annual capacity additions, with the region expected to average 20GW annually.
Proliferation of C&I demand across Europe offers an increasingly important buyer segment for onshore and offshore wind. “Offshore remains central to Europe’s outlook, comprising more than 25% of new capacity over the outlook (CAGR of 14%) and penetrating new markets in Southern and Eastern Europe,” said. Lewandowski.
“The expiration of legacy subsidy programs in Europe tempered year-over-year gains in China, with countries in Northern Europe (-26% YoY) and Western Europe (-36% YoY) hit the hardest as the RO (UK) and FiTs (Finland and Germany) phased out,” he added.