The USDA maintained its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 10. The expected price for 2021-’22 soybean oil was maintained.
USDA’s June soybean supply and use projections for 2021-’22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020-’21, the agency said. Soybean crush for 2020-’21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher soybean meal imports.
Soybean oil exports for 2020’21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Soybean oil domestic disappearance, however, is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong consumption to date. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021-’22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.
The USDA currently estimates 9.5 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2020-’21, up from 8.658 billion pounds in 2019-’20. Soybean oil use for biofuels is expected to reach 12 billion pounds in 2021-’22. Both figures were maintained from the May WASDE.
The USDA currently expects 2021-’22 prices for soybean oil to be at 65 cents per pound, a forecast maintained from last month. The estimated average price for 2020-’21 is now at 59 cents per pound, up from estimate of 55 cents per pound reported in the May WASDE.
Globally, 2021-’22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven by higher beginning stocks for the U.S. and Brazil. Brazil’s 2020-’21 soybean production is raised 1 million tons to 137 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato Grosso do Sul.